Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.363398 0.414567 0.470126 0.534903 0.608328 0.688949 0.784164
2025-08-31 0.284085 0.350809 0.428900 0.526936 0.646635 0.787948 0.967387
2025-09-07 0.236357 0.313673 0.410529 0.540530 0.710235 0.924037 1.213689
2025-09-14 0.187559 0.266370 0.371606 0.521975 0.730894 1.010470 1.412640
2025-09-21 0.154249 0.233432 0.345664 0.515662 0.765936 1.120091 1.658541
2025-09-28 0.127292 0.204533 0.320339 0.505620 0.793580 1.222845 1.909978
2025-10-05 0.112217 0.190631 0.314472 0.522898 0.863408 1.395882 2.289414
2025-10-12 0.096382 0.172658 0.299240 0.522767 0.905626 1.531981 2.630849
2025-10-19 0.084565 0.159278 0.289193 0.529217 0.958969 1.692383 3.033618
2025-10-26 0.075833 0.149766 0.284115 0.543128 1.026596 1.884990 3.516927
2025-11-02 0.064338 0.133096 0.263532 0.525656 1.035142 1.975126 3.830622
2025-11-09 0.053685 0.116166 0.239736 0.498217 1.020614 2.020652 4.067213
2025-11-16 0.046349 0.104952 0.225816 0.489041 1.042264 2.141174 4.472650
2025-11-23 0.040011 0.094714 0.212250 0.478482 1.059720 2.256391 4.885472
2025-11-30 0.036280 0.089577 0.208621 0.488475 1.121780 2.470371 5.532055
2025-12-07 0.030981 0.079816 0.193237 0.470015 1.119320 2.549453 5.904500
2025-12-14 0.027235 0.073083 0.183619 0.463151 1.141803 2.685341 6.420977
2025-12-21 0.023845 0.066586 0.173460 0.453288 1.155708 2.803874 6.914970
2025-12-28 0.022218 0.064376 0.173412 0.468219 1.231371 3.074151 7.800041
2026-01-04 0.020018 0.060189 0.167650 0.467668 1.268494 3.258223 8.503622
2026-01-11 0.018340 0.057144 0.164380 0.473141 1.321916 3.489218 9.355452
2026-01-18 0.017104 0.055155 0.163643 0.485385 1.395127 3.779621 10.398383
2026-01-25 0.014993 0.050097 0.153470 0.469562 1.389700 3.867256 10.924922